Conforto to Reject Qualifying Offer

amazin port

Refugee
This is our Conforto pick spot in bold:

1st round
Comp picks for revenue sharing recipients who lost a QO FA who signed for $50M+
Competitive Balance Round A
2nd round
Competitive Balance Round B
Comp picks for revenue sharing recipients who lost a QO FA who signed for less than $50M
Comp picks for non-revenue sharing recipients who did not exceed the luxury tax threshold
3rd round
4th round
Comp picks for non-revenue sharing recipients who exceeded the luxury tax threshold
I was wrong thinking we got a supplemental pick between 1 and 2 for Conforto, however 2 and 3 (around the 70th pick) is nothing to get excited about.

So compensation for deGrom opting out would be a pick between 4th/5th round (around the 170th picked).
 

amazin port

Refugee
Free agency is not the only way to acquire an OFer. There are other options than just those 3 to bolster the lineup. Resigning Conforto handcuffs us from making bigger moves.
But what are the "bigger moves". I think the point is (and i'm not advocating re-signing Conforto), that our COF are the two positions that need upgrading and unless we give Vientos a shot at LF (with FA with good range), we've got nothing in the minors.

OK we can look at trades, but to get a good, young(ish) OF we're going to have to deal away the very players (Mauricio/Baty/Vientos) that MAY convert to COF.

The "bigger move" IS to improve the COF.
 

WC

sandy vagina
Super Moderator
the bigger move is to stick another stud in the lineup at 3b and then do our best to make it work between mcneil in RF and anyone not named Conforto in LF

a solid defensive rh platoon cf who hits lefties would also go a long way for this team

does that exist anymore
 

amazin port

Refugee
the bigger move is to stick another stud in the lineup at 3b and then do our best to make it work between mcneil in RF and anyone not named Conforto in LF

a solid defensive rh platoon cf who hits lefties would also go a long way for this team

does that exist anymore
If that 3B is Bryant that is flexibly enough to move to COF IF M/V/B show they can play a better 3B i'm in. If it means spending close to $35m and losing the 14 pick in the draft, or losing 2 of our blue chip prospects....nah not happening (if you take Stevie's words to heart).

A CF that stays on the field and moves Nimmo to LF works.....the ON-base skills from the OF and power addition coming from the infield (Baez).
 

You > Valent

Future POBO
sign Marte, force Lindor and Baez to steal 25 bags each, and force Nimmo to steal 15. all of a sudden we're a "quick" team on top of getting our CFer
 

Buddy Lembeck

MR Historian
Super Moderator
Marte's been a below average defender the past three years (-14 DRS) coming off a career year fueled by high BA/BABIP and turning 33. If there was a definition of red flags for a bad Mets signing, this would meet most of the criteria. I'd be shocked if he came here and batted over .290/.300 or OPSed in the upper .700s/.800s. Citi's the place where .300 hitters magically turn into .250 hitters.
 

amazin port

Refugee
sign Marte, force Lindor and Baez to steal 25 bags each, and force Nimmo to steal 15. all of a sudden we're a "quick" team on top of getting our CFer
We've got a 'Nimmo' who's eye is so good that when we get automated Strike Zone his OBP is going through the roof..... but it's as if the organisation is trying to make everyone into a Nimmo. For me get Marte (1st- more more likely to steal) ) and Nimmo (2) and then let Lindor and Baez go to the old fashioned, see the ball hit the ball. (with Alonso in there somewhere)

Ok this is old fashioned with this idea that teams play their best hitter at no. 2 so he gets more AB's Bart Fail. For me use and allow players the approach the AB's without having to mess with their minds by instilling a blue print of what they should do.
 

You > Valent

Future POBO
Marte's been a below average defender the past three years (-14 DRS) coming off a career year fueled by high BA/BABIP and turning 33. If there was a definition of red flags for a bad Mets signing, this would meet most of the criteria. I'd be shocked if he came here and batted over .290/.300 or OPSed in the upper .700s/.800s. Citi's the place where .300 hitters magically turn into .250 hitters.
one time someone mentioned a guy who plays centerfield and wasn't immediately met with "he actually sucks dick defensively," so i just assume there are 5 actually good centerfielders in baseball and all 5 are unatainable. and 2 of them are actually good on both sides of the ball. and 1 of them is consistently "healthy."

this is how we get "stuck" with Nimmo in center every year, which at this point, fine. whatever. build elsewhere
 

Buddy Lembeck

MR Historian
Super Moderator
one time someone mentioned a guy who plays centerfield and wasn't immediately met with "he actually sucks dick defensively," so i just assume there are 5 actually good centerfielders in baseball and all 5 are unatainable. and 2 of them are actually good on both sides of the ball. and 1 of them is consistently "healthy."

this is how we get "stuck" with Nimmo in center every year, which at this point, fine. whatever. build elsewhere
How many position players have we ever acquired age 33+ for multiple years who have ever worked out for us?

Granderson (who averaged about 2.5 WAR over 4 years)? Who else?
 

WC

sandy vagina
Super Moderator
would reluctantly settle for bryant but would be pissy about it
 

Buddy Lembeck

MR Historian
Super Moderator
This franchise will start heading places once we hire a great POBO/GM who makes steal of trades early to mid 80s Cashen-style. Steve's money will be a supplement, but that alone won't come close to us going anywhere.
 

amazin port

Refugee
Marte's been a below average defender the past three years (-14 DRS) coming off a career year fueled by high BA/BABIP and turning 33. If there was a definition of red flags for a bad Mets signing, this would meet most of the criteria. I'd be shocked if he came here and batted over .290/.300 or OPSed in the upper .700s/.800s. Citi's the place where .300 hitters magically turn into .250 hitters.
But we get him for his OBP/base stealing skills and improve our defense due to speed. His defense for last year is better than Springers and also brings up the UZR/100 vrs DRS debate....what he brings is range (depending if you think the RNG in 2021 is the real him....doesnt appear a hit on his speed as he still stole 47 bases).

Im not advocating going to something stupid like 4 years and it's another case of being able to utilize Cohen's money creatively (even front loading contracts, but lowering CBT considerations with years).
 

Buddy Lembeck

MR Historian
Super Moderator
They ain’t giving up the pick for Correa. Same with Chris Taylor. Bryant or bust.
Moreso than the pick, us getting Correa's more about the boatload of money he'd cost while we already have a $300M SS. If we didn't have Lindor, we'd probably make a run at Correa and be willing to give up the pick in a heartbeat.

Taylor's the one who we wouldn't give up a pick for.

Bryant does seem like a great FA fit for us.

We also need to make some under the radar trades for some good (and potentially cheap) players.
 

bphunke

Rephugee
Administrator
But we get him for his OBP/base stealing skills and improve our defense due to speed. His defense for last year is better than Springers and also brings up the UZR/100 vrs DRS debate....what he brings is range (depending if you think the RNG in 2021 is the real him....doesnt appear a hit on his speed as he still stole 47 bases).

Im not advocating going to something stupid like 4 years and it's another case of being able to utilize Cohen's money creatively (even front loading contracts, but lowering CBT considerations with years).
He will fall off the cliff the minute he gets the Queens. These types of signings have never worked out for us. There are other ways to fix this team that signing 33 year olds who can’t seem to stick anywhere.
 
Free agency is not the only way to acquire an OFer. There are other options than just those 3 to bolster the lineup. Resigning Conforto handcuffs us from making bigger moves.
- QO for 19 million
- Likely to sign a deal for 20-25/per

That 1-6 million is going to handcuff the team? Did the Wilpons take back control or something?
 

Buddy Lembeck

MR Historian
Super Moderator
But we get him for his OBP/base stealing skills and improve our defense due to speed. His defense for last year is better than Springers and also brings up the UZR/100 vrs DRS debate....what he brings is range (depending if you think the RNG in 2021 is the real him....doesnt appear a hit on his speed as he still stole 47 bases).

Im not advocating going to something stupid like 4 years and it's another case of being able to utilize Cohen's money creatively (even front loading contracts, but lowering CBT considerations with years).
That's nice in theory when he's OBPing at a .380 clip while he's batting .310 and stealing 40 bases.

But those speed numbers will drop when he goes back to OBPing .330-.340 or possibly worse once he gets here.

Not saying he is Alomar, but it is a lesson of a .310-.320 hitter/upper .300s-.400 OBP guy stealing 30-40 bases coming to the Mets as he approaches his mid 30s and batting .250/OBPing .330 and having his steals drop into the teens.
 
Enough with the Wilpon shit. The Mets will have a $250+ payroll with or without Conforto.
Okay. Doesn't change my point.

Is this team going to let him walk over ~3 million this season? Does this franchise have the richest owner in the sport or not?
 

bphunke

Rephugee
Administrator
Okay. Doesn't change my point.

Is this team going to let him walk over ~3 million this season? Does this franchise have the richest owner in the sport or not?
No they are probably gonna let him walk over the 6 figure contract Boras is gonna seek for him.
 

amazin port

Refugee
He will fall off the cliff the minute he gets the Queens. These types of signings have never worked out for us. There are other ways to fix this team that signing 33 year olds who can’t seem to stick anywhere.
Oh I agree there's issues (there are with every option...other than Bryant). I see Marte's speed/range/OB skills allowing us to experiment with M.V.B......the uncertainty of what we've got in those 3 prospects and the possible lack of every outright OFers in the minors is the reason to look at Bryant (oh and my obsession that Lindor is a middle of the order RBI hitter....not a no.2 table setter).

Im totally with you that Bryant is the perfect fit.....hopefully the rumor that we were high on getting him and Baez in July is going to be seen through this off season.
 

Buddy Lembeck

MR Historian
Super Moderator
Marte's OBP the last 5 years (ages 28-32)

2021: .381
2020: .340
2019: .342
2018: .327
2017: .333

Which one looks like the outlier?
 

amazin port

Refugee
That's nice in theory when he's OBPing at a .380 clip while he's batting .310 and stealing 40 bases.

But those speed numbers will drop when he goes back to OBPing .330-.340 or possibly worse once he gets here.

Not saying he is Alomar, but it is a lesson of a .310-.320 hitter/upper .300s-.400 OBP guy stealing 30-40 bases coming to the Mets as he approaches his mid 30s and batting .250/OBPing .330 and having his steals drop into the teens.
You've mentioned Alomar and you've mentioned Granderson.... that's the whole reason the professionals need to assess and map his likely decline, our subjective opinions mean nothing.

If you look at the needs of the team and the skills Marte possesses he fits. Every player has some downside....Buxton....can you pay him when he's averaging just 70 games a season.

Marte is a temporary band aid, to aid the COF problem....I actually prefer Bryant but I wonder about the cost.
 

amazin port

Refugee
Marte's OBP the last 5 years (ages 28-32)

2021: .381
2020: .340
2019: .342
2018: .327
2017: .333

Which one looks like the outlier?
His career OBP: .345 would put him close to the top 50 in MLB (possibly higher depending on IBB).

It's also a big improvement on Lindor's .336 OBP hitting 2nd (especially as he steals bases).
 

Buddy Lembeck

MR Historian
Super Moderator
Marte would be a classic terrible Mets signing. I can hear the boos now. Should have got him 3 years ago when he was available from the pirates.
He will fall off the cliff the minute he gets the Queens. These types of signings have never worked out for us. There are other ways to fix this team that signing 33 year olds who can’t seem to stick anywhere.
This pretty much sums it up
 
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